COVID-19 Model Output
This document summarizes model output for COVID-19.
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 1 Base case 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 1 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 1 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 2 Asymp equal inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 2 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 1 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 2 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 3 School closing 6.533984 2.40833 0.5171128 7.589407 11.54375 1.15179
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 3 1.568749 1.447518 1.42567 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 3 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22
## 4 Halve all contacts 4.880951 1.13532 0.1461309 3.343823 5.166708
## v23 v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 4 0.4426403 0.4578418 0.5070584 0.6247415 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3
## alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 4 0.3 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1
## k_susp
## 4 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 5 Double transm 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 5 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.1 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 5 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 6 Trans/10 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 6 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.005 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 6 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 7 SD 50% 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 7 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0.5 1 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 7 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 8 SD 50% test 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 8 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0.5 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 8 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 9 No asympt 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 9 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 9 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 10 Higher detection 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 10 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 10 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 1 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21
## 11 FLAG NO CHANGE: Shorten inc 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646
## v22 v23 v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa
## 11 10.33342 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375
## alpha1 alpha2 alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio
## 11 0.75 0.3 0.3 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1
## k_report k_inf k_susp
## 11 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22
## 12 FLAG NO CHANGE: Double inc 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342
## v23 v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 12 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3
## alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 12 0.3 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1
## k_susp
## 12 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 13 Double inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 13 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 13 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 14 Kids less inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 14 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 14 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 0.5 1
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 15 Kids less susp 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 15 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 15 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 0.5
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22
## 16 Kids less inf less susp 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342
## v23 v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 16 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3
## alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 16 0.3 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 0.5
## k_susp
## 16 0.5
## Scenario v11 v12 v13 v21 v22 v23
## 17 Base case 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
## v31 v32 v33 s e p R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 17 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375 0.75 0.3 0.3
## epsilon delta gamma m1 m2 m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 17 1/.5 0.2 0.2 0 0.005 0.1 0.13 24 1 1 1 1
## [1] "Cutting contact rates in half after 15 days (Josh's additional request)"