This document summarizes model output for COVID-19.

##    Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 1 Base case 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 1 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 1    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##          Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 2 Asymp equal inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 2 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2     1   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 2    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##         Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22     v23
## 3 School closing 6.533984 2.40833 0.5171128 7.589407 11.54375 1.15179
##        v31      v32     v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 3 1.568749 1.447518 1.42567 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 3    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##             Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22
## 4 Halve all contacts 4.880951 1.13532 0.1461309 3.343823 5.166708
##         v23       v31       v32       v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 4 0.4426403 0.4578418 0.5070584 0.6247415 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3
##   alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 4    0.3    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1
##   k_susp
## 4      1

##        Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 5 Double transm 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33 s e   p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 5 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.1 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 5    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##   Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 6 Trans/10 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33 s e     p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 6 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.005 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 6    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##   Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 7   SD 50% 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33   s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 7 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0.5 1 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 7    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##      Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 8 SD 50% test 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33   s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 8 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0.5 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 8    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##    Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 9 No asympt 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##         v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 9 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2     0   0.75    0.3    0.3
##   epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 9    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##            Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 10 Higher detection 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##          v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 10 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2     0   0.75    0.3    0.3
##    epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3 c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 10    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 1  24       1        1     1      1

##                       Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21
## 11 FLAG NO CHANGE: Shorten inc 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646
##         v22       v23       v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa
## 11 10.33342 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375
##    alpha1 alpha2 alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio
## 11   0.75    0.3    0.3    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1
##    k_report k_inf k_susp
## 11        1     1      1

##                      Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22
## 12 FLAG NO CHANGE: Double inc 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342
##          v23       v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 12 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3
##    alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 12    0.3    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1
##    k_susp
## 12      1

##      Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 13 Double inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##          v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 13 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##    epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 13    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

##         Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 14 Kids less inf 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##          v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 14 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##    epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 14    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1   0.5      1

##          Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 15 Kids less susp 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##          v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 15 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##    epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 15    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1    0.5

##                   Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22
## 16 Kids less inf less susp 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342
##          v23       v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2
## 16 0.8852806 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3
##    alpha3 epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf
## 16    0.3    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1   0.5
##    k_susp
## 16    0.5

##     Scenario      v11     v12       v13      v21      v22       v23
## 17 Base case 9.761903 2.27064 0.2922618 6.687646 10.33342 0.8852806
##          v31      v32      v33 s e    p  R0 kappa alpha1 alpha2 alpha3
## 17 0.9156837 1.014117 1.249483 0 0 0.05 2.2 0.375   0.75    0.3    0.3
##    epsilon delta gamma m1    m2  m3    c obs e_ratio k_report k_inf k_susp
## 17    1/.5   0.2   0.2  0 0.005 0.1 0.13  24       1        1     1      1

## [1] "Cutting contact rates in half after 15 days (Josh's additional request)"